Hoofdklasse Play Offs: Preview final round

Normally I don’t make any predictions. Most of the time I am at the wrong side with them.

But I’d like to try to make a prediction on who will advance to the Holland Series.

L&D Amsterdam Pirates vs Curacao Neptunus

L&D Amsterdam Pirates is in the lead of the standings with four points over Corendon Kinheim and Curacao Neptunus.
The Amsterdam based team only needs one victory to clinch a spot in the Holland Series. Through the season starting pitcher Rob Cordemans was formidable again with a microscopic ERA of 0.84. But in last Thursday’s game he hit a snag. In five innings he gave up three runs on nine hits. He walked one and struck out six.
We have to wait if this was just a bad day. With a good hitting team like Curacao Neptunus, Cordemans may have another tough night ahead. As long as he gets enough run support it may all not be as dramatic. Orlando Yntema’s ERA is rather high this season, at least for his standards (3.14). But on the other hand he keeps his opponents to a batting average of an improbable .149. It will be a good matchup if both pitchers can throw their premier stuff.

In game two Kevin Heijstek will start. In Heijstek, Pirates has a bonafide starter on whom I would put my money if I had to bet. His probable opponent on the other hand has some shaky sesason. Two weeks ago against Kinheim Diegomar Markwell allowed four runs (two earned) on nine hits in seven innings. But last week he was one hit shy of a no-hitter. And that is his season in a nut shell. One day he can pitch brilliantly and the next he can be easy to hit. But if both pitchers can put up their A game, a nice pitching match up may lay ahead of us.

Likely match up in game three will be Kenny van de Branden for Neptunus vs Kyle Ward for Pirates. In this case I would put my money on Van den Branden. The kid is brilliant at times. The way he silenced the Italian bats in the European Cup final, was simply awesome.

At bat, Curacao Neptunus is normally the better team: .326 during the regular season vs the .279 of L&D Amsterdam Pirates.

It is still hard to tell. Last year Neptuns proved that they can come back out of a beaten position. They are in a must win situation because they are tied with Corendon Kinheim for second place. IF both teams finish with the same number of points, Kinheim will advance to the Holland Series, based on the two Kinheim victories over Neptunus during the play offs (3-2 and 7-5).

I think that Thursday’s game will be a win for Neptunus, Saturday’s a win for Pirates and Sunday, a win for Neptunus.

Corendon Kinheim vs Vaessen Pioniers

It seems like Kinheim has caught fire at the right time. The few games that I have seen them play during the regular season, they looked rather uninspired to me. But somehow they have straightened their ship.
Normally Kinheim should win three games of this series (both their team pitching stats and team hitting stats are better than Pioniers’) but Pioniers has spoiled the party for Neptunus earlier this play offs when they beat Neptunus 6-3.
Even though Kinheim has a more favorable position than Neptunus, it is still a must win situation for them. They simply cannot rely on the opponent of Neptunus to win at least one.

Through the season, manager Wim Martinus has been juggling with his rotation a bit, so it is hard to tell who will be the starting pitcher for Kinheim tomorrow.

Normally I would sayt that in game one Glenn Wassink will be the starter for Corendon Kinheim. Ricardo Hernandez may take the mound for Vaessen Pioniers. Where Wassink had one of the highest ERA’s of the regular season (8.10). Hernandez had an ERA of 2.29. Wassink has kept his opponents to a .256 while Hernandez’ opponents hit .236.  But….since Tom Stuifbergen was ejected last Sunday, he will face a suspension. The commission dealing with his case will do this on Thurdsay night, the verdict will be announced on Friday. So if Wim Martinus is smart, he will let Stuifbergen start on Thursday night.

In game two (Saturday), Lars Huijer will take the mound for Vaessen Pioniers. Lars, pithcing in his first season after his return from the US, where he spent a few years in the Mariners’ organization, posted a 2.72 ERA, while he kept his opponents to a .216 batting average. Likely starter for Kinheim will be David Bergman, who is back in the starter role after a few seasons as reliever. Bergman posted a 5.40 ERA during the regular season and his opponents hit .296 with him on the mound.

It remains to be seen whether Tom Stuifbergen will pitch for Kinheim coming Sunday. Last Sunday he was tossed. The commission that has to deal with his suspension will do so tomorrown night. Stuifbergen had a season ERA of 2.08 and his opponents hit .297.
Elton Koeiman will probably take the mound for Pioniers on Sunday. Koeiman has by far the highest ERA of the Pioniers starters: 3.66 and his opponents hit .293 with him on the mound. If Stuifbergen will start on Thursday, Glenn Wassink may start on Sunday.

Overall, Kinheim has a better team batting average than Pioniers. .314 over .272.

So this series may even be harder to predict than the one between L&D Amsterdam Pirates and Curacao Neptunus.

Game 1 on Thursday: based on the season pitching stats, I’d say Pioniers. But since Glenn Wassink had a superb outing last Thursday, so that game may have given him a boost.
Okay, coin flip: Kinheim win, especially if Stuifbergen will get the nod.

Saturday’s game likely will be won by Pioniers purely based on their pitching.

Sunday’s game is up for grabs, depending if Tom Stuifbergen will pitch or not. If he pitches on Sunday, I expect Kinheim to win. If not manager Wim Martinus must juggle with his pitchers and let a reliever make a spot start.  If Kinheim plays it smart, they will let Stuifbergen start on Thursday.

I’ll count on Kinheim to win two out of three. And if Neptunus will do as I wrote above, Kinheim will clinch a spot in the Holland Series. Even if Neptunus will win all games vs Pirates, Kinheim will clinch a sport in the Holland Series, since they won two out of three last week vs the Amsterdam based team.

It is an exciting last round in which the final day can be decisive. I expect L&D Amsterdam and Kinheim to advance to the Holland Series.