Are Japanese starting pitchers worth the investment?

With the news that Yu Darvish has another injury, a UCL sprain, and that he may need surgery, I start to wonder if it pays off to acquire Japanese starting pitchers right out of Japan.

Of course there have been plenty that have/had a career without major injuries or declining numbers, but Darvish is one of a couple that were hit by injuries several times.

Yu Darvish missed the final seven weeks of last season with a mild inflammation in his pitching elbow, left his first spring training game of this season after just one inning. But there have been more Japanese starting pitchers that were bothered by injuries and declining numbers. Most recent example besides Darvish is Yankee Masahiro Tanaka. After a solid start of the season, his numbers dwindled because of an injury to his elbow that could use Tommy John surgery. The Yankees shut him down until September, when he made his comeback on the 21st. In his start vs the Red Sox, he left after 1.2 innings when he gave up seven runs. Wary of Tommy John surgery, the Yankees opted for resting him. So far Tanaka claims to feel fine, but I fear that his elbow is a ticking time bomb.

But there have been more Japanese pitchers that did not live up to the expectations. The first that comes to mind is Kei Igawa. The Yankees paid $26 million dollars only to negotiate with him. After they signed Igawa, the Yankees discovered flaws in his mechanics and sent him down to Florida to work with Nardi Contreras and Billy Connors. Eventually he spent the biggest part of his contract with the Yankees with Scranton/ Wilkes-Barre of the AAA International League.

What about Daisuke Matsuzaka? In his first two seasons with the Red Sox, he topped ten wins per season. But after 2008, his numbers started to decline. In 2009 he spent a major part on the DL and never came close to the numbers that he produced in 2008 and 2007. In 2011 missed the season due to Tommy John surgery. After stints with the Cleveland Indians and New York Mets, Matsuzaka returned to Japan in 2014 to sign a deal with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks for the 2015 season.

Even phenomenon Hideo Nomo’s star started to fade after two seasons. I was lucky enough to see him pitch in 1995 in Dodger Stadium. The place was packed with Japanese fans. In that first MLB year he posted a 13-6 record. In the years thereafter he hardly came close to those numbers, except for 2002 when he posted a 16-6 record with a 3.36 ERA. Despite of having an MLB career record of 123 wins and 109 losses and a lifetime ERA of 4.24 he never had the phenomenal career they expected him to have.

I think that the way Japanese pitchers are used in their childhood days and the way in which they are used in the NPB, may lead to the various injuries that some are experiencing in the Majors.
I have read stories about the Koshien tournament (the Japanese high school championship. When it comes to popularity it is the equivalent of the College World Series). It is not a rarity that pitchers throw many pitches in a game of 17 innings. The last one who did this was Daisuke Matsuzaka in 1998 when he threw 250 pitches in a game over 17 innings. In 2000 they limited the number of innings to 15 in case of a tie. In that case the game is rescheduled the next day. Masahiro Tanaka pitched in the Koshien tournament as well. He was used in long relief for two days in a row in a total of 20 (!) innings. In the West it is generally accepted that excessive use of a pitcher’s arm at a young age is not healthy. Why else are kids limited to a 70 pitch pitch count with the Little League World Series?

Same with the use of pitchers in the NPB. It is not a rarity either that pitchers throw about 140 pitches in a game. But through the years the coaches in NPB changed their mind. Twenty years ago the maximum pitch count was at 220-230 in a game.
For sure it is a complete different approach than managers in the US have. In US baseball pitchers are mostly limited to a 100-pitch pitch count, except when they are in a no-hit bid or if the bullpen needs a rest. American clubs are scared to overuse their pitchers.

The problem is that damage to pitchers arms is hard to detect. But since the NPB stats of the pitchers that are posted are so damned good, the temptation of signing them is so big that the risks of injuries are easily overlooked. As an example of how hard it is to see if a pitchers arm is damaged or not, I got some inside information about Dice-K when the Red Sox acquired him. According to a Red Sox scout, the MRI on his pitching arm did not show any damage or inflammations.

But my personal opinion is that there is too much risk in signing a Japanese starting pitcher straight from Japan, simply because of the different approach in Japanese baseball. And it is not only about the risk of injuries but also the risk of pitchers that do not live up the expectations.

I’d like to conclude this blog post with thanking Jim Allen. He is an expert on Japanese baseball and provided some interesting information, especially on the Koshien tournament. His blog “On Japanese Baseball” is absolutely worth reading.